Data provided by the Colorado State Patrol regarding accidents from 1990 to Sept. 1997 on Magnolia Road and vicinity werre analyzed in this memo. (Earlier accident data are currently being researched).
In summary, there were 109 accidents on or near Magnolia Road recorded by the CSP over the last approximately 7 years (about 15 per year). Speeding was cited far more often than any other cause (40%). The next cause cited was "inattention to driving" (23%). Of note were seven DUIs, seven defective vehicles, six "wrong side of road" listed as causes. The citations issued (the actual tickets) recorded 45 "careless driving" (that's the speeding) and 13 "improper mountain driving". Only one accident was listed as "animal caused".
Commuter hours do not generally seem to be the most likely times for accidents. About 20 accidents (18%) took place between 10 am - noon, another 18 (17%) between 4-5 pm. Only 24% of all accidents occurred during the 6 hours of commuting (6-9am; 5-8pm). The worst single hour by far was 4-5pm, accounting for 17% of all accidents. (The next most hazardous hours were 10-11 am and 11-12 noon, each accounting for 9% of all accidents.) The 4-5 pm accident peak leaves one to wonder about causes. Are these early commuters returning home? Kids coming home from school? Parents hurrying home with kids in the car? Certainly, this would be worth more study and consideration. The safest hours of the day are 4-5 am and 1-2 pm when no accidents occurred over the last seven years.
Sixty two percent of all accidents had no injuries. 35% experienced light to moderate injury. Three percent saw serious injury. There were no fatalities during the last 7 years. Seventy five percent of accidents along Magnolia Road are one-car accidents, the balance are incidents involving two vehicles.
By far the greatest number of accidents on Magnolia did not occur along the interior parts of the road. Of any one location along the 12.4 miles of Magnolia Road, 39% of accidents occurred at Hwy 119 (Peak to Peak). CSP data does not detail whether these drivers were entering or leaving Magnolia, but it is evident that this intersection needs great care and attention from all drivers, coming or going.
Fifty accidents occurred on the unpaved portion, mile 4.5-12, and 15 accidents occurred on the paved part of "lower" Magnolia. But there are reasons for the differences in accident rates other than pavement to be taken into account. For example, another view is to look at the "density" of accidents, or number per unit distance. On the paved portion of Magnolia, there were 3.33 accidents per paved mile versus 6.66 per unpaved mile, twice the rate of the paved portion. Does this mean pavement is safer? Not necessarily, since the gradient and therefore likely speeds on the two sections are considerably different. People may tend to drive more conservatively on the paved portion because of its obvious hazards.
Only two other specific locations warrant special attention. Eleven accidents (10%) happened at "Dead Man's Curve", west of Lazy Z, well known and, incidentally, well marked with a warning for 15 mph. The next most common accident location along the road was at Mile 5, a slight curve near Twin Sisters intersection. Eight percent of all accidents occur at this curve.
One can speculate about the safety of paving vs. dirt roads. According to state records, speeds always show increases on pavement, and additional increases each time the pavement is renewed. However, State highway records show that on major highways, accident rates have declined as permitted speeds have increased over the last year, but they cautioned that this data is very preliminary since only one year has been analyzed. States other that Colorado have experienced just the reverse, more fatalities at increased speeds.
When a road is upgraded, other changes are always made. For example, tight turns are straightened, interesections are given longer sight distances by removal of trees or berms, additional signage appears, and guardrails may be added.
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